Search results

  1. vogafox

    cleared a 10x bonus properly and got £150 out of £612

    no cap, no weighting, and no eight week deadline either. the whole of @sufferinsilence's problem here is that he got £150 he wasn't happy with. on an unlicensed site the version of this story ends with £0 and a support ticket not saying don't. saying know which problem you're choosing
  2. vogafox

    cleared a 10x bonus properly and got £150 out of £612

    that's the MaxBet.rs case and it's real, but "a fella you know" is doing some heavy lifting there paul it did happen and the detail people should take from it is the one you mentioned second, not first. the terms didn't clearly define a maximum bet threshold at all. they applied a rule that...
  3. vogafox

    tabcorp buying betmakers, and in 2021 betmakers bid 4bn for tabcorp

    steady on he's not wrong that the incentives point one way. you're not wrong that they still have to show their working. both things are true and nobody has to lose
  4. vogafox

    tabcorp buying betmakers, and in 2021 betmakers bid 4bn for tabcorp

    folder of screenshots is the tell mate, i've had that folder. mine was 2019 and it turned out i was just bad at blackjack on the actual question though, pool integrity is one of the more genuinely policed corners of this industry, precisely because it's pari-mutuel. everyone in the pool can see...
  5. vogafox

    tabcorp buying betmakers, and in 2021 betmakers bid 4bn for tabcorp

    hunter becomes the hunted and all that. couldn't resist, sorry market cared though, BET popped about 33% on the announcement. 24 cents cash, and the premium depends entirely which outlet you read because they all picked a different reference price. i've seen 41, 45 and a half, and one that just...
  6. vogafox

    my fave hop shut friday. been there since before i was born

    worth understanding what the exemptions tell you,because they're more informative than the headline. horse racing stays at 15%. self service terminals inside a licensed shop stay at 15% because they aren't classed as remote. Bingo duty was 10% and has been abolished outright. Casino floor duty...
  7. vogafox

    Louisiana killed the last sweeps sites this august so whats even left for US players now??

    exactly @nataly.k that's structural problem. dual-currency model was designed to avoid being classified as gambling for regulatory purposes. the entire point was to sit outside the gambling framework. consequence players are discovering now is that sitting outside the gambling framework also...
  8. vogafox

    Louisiana killed the last sweeps sites this august so whats even left for US players now??

    legal mechanism here is worth understanding because it's the whole story. sweepstakes casinos operated in a grey zone by using a dual-currency model. you buy "gold coins" for entertainment, you get "sweeps coins" free that are redeemable for cash. the argument was that the purchasable currency...
  9. vogafox

    usdt is basically dead for eu players now. so how is everyone actually depositing since july

    underlying issue is that convenience and compliance are now in direct tension for eu crypto players in a way they werent before. the old usdt trc-20 flow was convenient AND ran through compliant exchanges because usdt was still listed. mica severed that. now you pick: convenient (workarounds...
  10. vogafox

    tier 2 cs scene is completely cooked - nomercy, naiyou, and $4.5m slip that started it

    @Scott1baird that distinction is traced well today and it's underappreciated. fair game with a house edge is a known quantity. you can calculate your expected loss and decide if the entertainment is worth it. and market where an unknown fraction of outcomes are predetermined by people betting...
  11. vogafox

    tier 2 cs scene is completely cooked - nomercy, naiyou, and $4.5m slip that started it

    structural problem is that esports betting volume has completely outrun the integrity infrastructure. you have thousands of tier 2 and tier 3 matches with real betting markets and almost no monitoring. the money that can be made fixing a $10,000 tournament dwarfs the prize pool by orders of...
  12. vogafox

    whats everyone played this month

    arms race has a commercial logic though. complexity obscures the math. a simple three-reel game, you can feel the RTP working against you. twelve stacking random features with configurable RTP across three versions, you have no intuitive sense of what's happening to your money. the noise isn't a...
  13. vogafox

    whats everyone played this month

    configurable RTP point slotking raised earlier is the one that actually matters and it gets ignored every time one of these threads comes up. a slot isn't a fixed product. dog house megaways 1000 exists as 96.5, 95.5 and 94.5. the airport slot as 96.07, 94.06, 92.05. same game, same art, same...
  14. vogafox

    bloomberg flagged 200 million of polymarket volume as possible insider trading. how much of that is real

    worth noting the same logic applies to the aggregate. the flagged $200m is mostly not one sophisticated operation, its a large number of people each having found something that felt free, most of whom would fail goldenfinger's repetition test if anyone applied it. those headline reads like...
  15. vogafox

    bloomberg flagged 200 million of polymarket volume as possible insider trading. how much of that is real

    and note which way the defendant needs it to go. van dyke needs event contracts to be bets rather than swaps. kalshi needs them to be swaps rather than bets, because that's the whole preemption argument against the states. so a soldier trying to avoid a commodities fraud conviction is arguing...
  16. vogafox

    bloomberg flagged 200 million of polymarket volume as possible insider trading. how much of that is real

    part i think matters more than the number is the composition. geopolitical markets accounting for most of the flagged volume isn't a coincidence and it isn't about sophisticated traders. sports outcomes have thousands of people with partial information and none with the whole picture. an...
  17. vogafox

    kalshi doing more volume than the entire us sportsbook industry and the states cant do a thing about it

    worth adding both platforms have been building their own enforcement rather than waiting for anyone to require it. kalshi put in guardrails in march stopping politicians trading their own races and athletes trading their own leagues, after they'd already suspended and fined candidates in...
  18. vogafox

    kalshi doing more volume than the entire us sportsbook industry and the states cant do a thing about it

    thats the honest limitation and it mirrors betfair pretty much. exchanges are excellent for main lines and poor for the long tail. the players with genuine edge in obscure props are the same ones sportsbooks limited fastest, and the exchange doesn't solve their problem because the liquidity...
  19. vogafox

    kalshi doing more volume than the entire us sportsbook industry and the states cant do a thing about it

    unlikely to be retroactive on settled trades but michigan is exactly the scenario you're describing. a state court ordered trades cancelled and refunded. the cftc instructed kalshi not to comply. so the honest answer to "what happens to my open position if my state wins"is genuinelly unresolved...
  20. vogafox

    kalshi doing more volume than the entire us sportsbook industry and the states cant do a thing about it

    well that volume comparison needs one qualifier. the 24bil is combined global volume across both platforms and includes everything - politics, economics, weather, sports, entertainment. the 14bil sportsbook figure is us regulated sports handle only. not measuring the same thing. the underlying...
Back
Top